A magnifying glass for your risks
Simulation Master is an Excel add-in for Monte Carlo simulation . What if you could estimate the probability of your project being profitable? How about knowing your project's schedule risk? You can do it with Simulation Master.
Take your spreadsheet models to another level by replacing single point estimates with a more in-depth analysis. You can perform quantitative risk analysis using Simulation Master's powerful features. In addition to risk analysis, Simulation Master is also used for engineering and scientific applications. The broad array of features and it's tight integration with Excel gives you the flexibility to analyze your models all within the Excel environment.
Simulation Master has 21 built-in probability distributions, and the ability to create custom distributions. Also, it can create a wide array of reports.
It also features a sensitivity analysis tool. This tool is used to determine critical inputs to the model.
There are two versions of Simulation Master to meet your needs, a standard edition and a premium edition. The standard edition is a full Monte Carlo simulation add-in package, and is perfect for the light user. The premium version has all the features of the standard edition. It also has optimization, decision variables, and distribution fitting.
How a Basic Monte Carlo Simulation Works
1. Build an Excel Spreadsheet Model
Build a spreadsheet to calculate the objective. You could model a project's net present value, the time to complete a project, etc.
2. Find Inputs to the Model that are Random Variables
Find the model inputs that can vary. These are called random variables and are a source of risk. Any single point estimates in your model are probably random variables.
3. Determine the Distribution of Each Random Variable
Determine the distribution, and parameters of each random variable. This may be based on expert estimates such as determining the minimum, most likely, and maximum task times when simulating a project critical path. If historical data is present, Simulation Master Premium's distribution fitting tool can be used to find the best fit distribution and its parameters.
4. Insert Simulation Master Random Variable Functions
Replace single point estimates in the model with Simulation Master's random variable functions. You can type functions directly in cells. If you can't remember a function's parameters, don't worry, there is a function assistant to guide you when adding random variable functions.
5. (Optional) Add Correlation
If random variable inputs are correlated, create a correlation matrix in the model, or use copulas to structure correlation among variables. Simulation Master has assistance tools to help add correlation structure to your model. Simulation Master has a correlation matrix tool to easily add rank order correlation to your model. Copula functions can be entered directly in cells, or you can use the copula assistance tool to guide you.
6. Simulate the Model
Run a Monte Carlo simulation. Once finished, you'll see output statistics along with a histogram. You can analyze outcome probabilities now, or do it later. Simulation data can be saved in the Excel workbook in a separate worksheet.
7. Analyze the Output
- Output summary statistics. Simulation Master generates summary statistics of the simulation output. These can be included in a summary report placed in the Excel workbook. Histogram, frequency polygon, and cumulative frequency charts of the output can also be included in the summary report.
- Probability analysis of outcomes. The probability analysis tool determines probability of outcomes above/below a set-point or inside/outside of a range.
- Correlation of inputs to output. The correlation tool will generate Pearson and Spearman Rank correlation coefficient values for each random variable with output. The tool will also generate tornado charts of the coefficients. This is useful for sensitivity analysis in determining which random variables have the most effect on output.
- Scatter plots of inputs to output. The scatter plot tool will create scatter plots of random variables vs. output and you can create scatter plots of random variable vs. random variable.
8. Present the Results
All charts and reports are native Excel objects so you can easily change formatting to meet your needs.
Standard Edition: $199 for single user permanent license.
Premium Edition: $299 for single user permanent license.
30 day money back guarantee.
One year of product updates.
Volume discounts available.
Value at risk
Project cost and schedule risk analysis
Mechanical tolerance analysis
Insurance loss models
Estimation of multi-dimensional integrals
Many more applications...
Excel: 2007 to 2019, Office 365. 32 and 64 bit versions.
Windows: Vista to Windows 10. 32 and 64 bit versions.
Excel for Mac not supported at this time.
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