Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel

Simulation Master is an Excel add-in for Monte Carlo simulation .  What if you could estimate the probability of your project being profitable?  How about knowing your project's schedule risk?  You can do it with Simulation Master.

Take your spreadsheet models to another level by replacing single point estimates with a more in-depth analysis.  You can perform quantitative risk analysis using Simulation Master's powerful features.  In addition to risk analysis, Simulation Master is also used for engineering and scientific applications.  The broad array of features and it's tight integration with Excel gives you the flexibility to analyze your models all within the Excel environment.

Simulation Master has 21 built-in probability distributions, and the ability to create custom distributions.  Also, it can create a wide array of reports.

It also features a sensitivity analysis tool.  This tool is used to determine critical inputs to the model.

There are two versions of Simulation Master to meet your needs, a standard edition and a premium edition.  The standard edition is a full Monte Carlo simulation add-in package, and is perfect for the light user.  The premium version has all the features of the standard edition.  It also has optimization, decision variables, and distribution fitting.

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Standard Edition
Single user permanent license $199.

Premium Edition
Single user permanent license $299.

>License Agreement

How It Works

1. Build an Excel spreadsheet model.

2. Determine inputs to the model that are random variables.

3. Determine the distribution, and parameters of each random variable.  This may be based on expert estimates such as determining the minimum, most likely, and maximum task times when simulating a project critical path.  If historical data is present, Simulation Master Premium's distribution fitting tool can be used to find the best fit distribution and its parameters.

4. Replace single point estimates in the model with Simulation Master's random variable functions.

5. (Optional) If random variable inputs are correlated, create a correlation matrix in the model.

6. Run the simulation.  Raw simulation data can be saved in the Excel workbook in a separate worksheet.

7. Analyze the output:

  • Output summary statistics.  Simulation Master generates summary statistics of the simulation output.  These can be included in a summary report placed in the Excel workbook.  Histogram, frequency polygon, and cumulative frequency charts of the output can also be included in the summary report.
  • Probability analysis of outcomes.  The probability analysis tool determines probability of outcomes above/below a set-point or inside/outside of a range.
  • Correlation of inputs to output.  The correlation tool will generate Pearson and Spearman Rank correlation coefficient values for each random variable with output.  The tool will also generate tornado charts of the coefficients.  This is useful for sensitivity analysis in determining which random variables have the most effect on output.
  • Scatter plots of inputs to output.  The scatter plot tool will create scatter plots of random variables vs. output and you can create scatter plots of random variable vs. random variable.

8. Present the results.  All charts and reports are native Excel objects so you can easily change formatting to meet your needs.

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Distributions

Continuous

Triangular
Trapezoidal
Uniform
Normal
Lognormal
Exponential
Weibull
Beta
PERT
Gamma
Pareto
Logistic
Extreme Value Maximum
Extreme Value Minimum

Empirical Distributions

Empirical distributions can be used to sample directly from data.  Simulation Master can sample from data as a discrete distribution where only values present in the data are returned.  It can also sample as a continuous distribution where samples are interpolated between data points.

Discrete

Bernoulli
Categorical
Discrete Uniform
Binomial
Negative Binomial
Geometric
Poisson

Custom Distributions

User defined distribution function allows for the use of custom distributions or distributions not already included in Simulation Master.  In addition, mixture distributions can be created.

Truncation

Most distributions can be truncated.

Optimization (Premium Edition)

If you're model has decision variables, that is variables that you can control, you can find the optimum value using Simulation Master premium's optimizer.

An output statistic, such as mean, is maximized, minimized, or set to a target value by changing decision variables while repeatedly simulating the model.  This is like a simulation loop embedded within an optimization loop.  For more information on optimization with random variables, refer to this page.

You can also set constraints on output statistics, or define your own constraints within cells in the model.

Monte Carlo Simulation Applications

Financial modeling
Value at risk
Project cost and schedule risk analysis
Mechanical tolerance analysis
Insurance loss models
Estimation of multi-dimensional integrals
Many more applications...

Useful Information

You can download user manuals from the following links.

>Standard Edition User Manual
>Premium Edition User Manual

There are many example Excel workbooks containing models for various applications of Monte Carlo simulation.  Many of the examples have application briefs explaining how the models are set-up and used.

>Application Examples

Visit the Knowledge Base for information on all of our products.  You can find tutorials, videos, and articles on using and applying our products.

>Knowledge Base

Pricing

Standard Edition: $199 for single user permanent license.


Premium Edition: $299 for single user permanent license.


30 day money back guarantee.


One year of support included.  For support, visit the Support page.


One year of product updates.


Volume discounts available.  Inquire at contact@vortarus.com


Refer to this page for purchase orders.


We strive to make our software universally compatible with Excel 2007 through 2016, and all active Windows versions.  It is strongly recommended that you test your system with the free trial version prior to purchasing.  Besides, we want you to try the software so you are comfortable with your purchase.


Excel for Mac not supported at this time.


 

Consulting Services

Need help building a model?  We can build and simulate a model for you.  Check out our consulting services page for more information.


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