Sometimes using a new technique or tool is difficult without some assistance. If you need help building that first model, let us do it for you. Our risk analysis consulting services are here to get you on your way.
Our services are also great for outsourcing analysis when you don't want to make the time and investment of training in-house personnel on Monte Carlo simulation and decision trees.
Construction of a model in Excel, simulation of the model using Simulation Master, and a written report of the results.
For simple models, simulation may be done using Excel's capabilities to avoid using an add-in such as Simulation Master. This is a good option for one-off projects, or when you don't plan on purchasing Monte Carlo simulation software.
$499 per model, for most models. More complex models may be more, you will get an upfront price after initial consultation.
Listed below are some pointers for gathering the required information needed to start construction of the model.
- Model assumptions.
- The calculation formulas used to determine model output, or a description of what is being modeled. If this is a project schedule risk analysis, please provide a network diagram (if possible) and task completion estimates.
- Random variable distribution information, if available. Any historical data that may be used to find random variable distributions.
- If random variables are correlated, provide correlation information.
If optimization of the model is required, please provide the following information. For more information on optimization with simulation, refer to this article.
- Decision variables (variables that can be controlled) and their bounds.
- Optimization goal.
- Optimization constraints.
Decision Tree Analysis
- Decision tree construction using DTace, analysis and reporting.
- Monte Carlo simulation with decision tree.
- $499 for most problems.
- Complex trees may be more, you will get an upfront price after initial consultation.