Project Management

decision making under risk

Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Decision making under risk and uncertainty is a fact of life.  There are many ways of handling unknowns when making a decision.  We will try to enumerate the most common methods used to get information prior to decision making under risk and uncertainty.  We’ll also look at decision rules used to make the final choice.  For …

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Exposing Project Schedule Risk Hidden in Best Estimates

When we try to estimate a project completion time, often the temptation is to use a best guess completion time for each task, find the critical path, and add up the times.  This method lacks information about the project schedule risk, and if done honestly, often results in a finish time later than the due …

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Project Risk Analysis - Hanging Climber

Qualitative vs. Quantitative Project Risk Analysis – What’s the Difference?

As part of risk management, a project risk analysis is performed to assess the impact of risks and the probability of the risk occurrence.  In this article we will look at the differences between qualitative and quantitative project risk analysis. To see how project risk analysis fits within risk management, please refer to this article. …

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Project Critical Path Analysis Using Simulation

Project critical path analysis can be performed using Monte Carlo simulation as a way to determine project completion time probabilities.  In this article, we will create a network diagram in Excel and a table to perform necessary logic operations. We will assume that each task follows the PERT distribution (also called Beta-PERT).  Using past experience, …

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