# Products

## Optimization with Simulation Explained

Optimization with simulation sounds ominous, confusing, and generally nasty.  In this article, I will try to explain what all this means and how you can use it to solve some pretty interesting, and tough, problems.  With traditional optimization we change some value so that the output of a model reaches a desired goal, such as …

## Optimization of a Dewar Flask Design

In this article we will perform a Dewar flask design optimization using Simulation Master’s optimizer.  In a previous article we analyzed a Dewar flask’s design that was used to shield down hole electronics from high temperature oil & gas well bores. In that article we had a fixed design, and treated emissivity of the vacuum chamber …

## Monte Carlo Simulation of a Down Hole Dewar Flask

A Dewar flask is used in the oil & gas industry to protect electronics from high temperatures experienced down hole.  As temperatures increase, reliability of electronic components decrease and ultimately fail. We will analyze a Dewar flask design using Monte Carlo simulation of time down hole before an internal flask temperature of 435 Kelvin is …

## Integration Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo integration can be used to estimate definite integrals that cannot be easily solved by analytical methods.  There are several methods to apply Monte Carlo integration for finding integrals.  In this article we will cover the basic or ordinary method. Basic Monte Carlo Integration Let’s start with a generic single integral where we want …

## Determining Value at Risk Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Value at risk (VaR) is a commonly used risk measure in the finance industry.  Monte Carlo simulation is one of the methods that can be used to determine VaR. There are two things we need to specify when stating value at risk: The time horizon.  This may be daily for some portfolios or a longer …

## Expected Shortfall Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Expected shortfall is an extension of value at risk (VaR).  For a discussion on VaR, refer to the article where VaR is determined using Monte Carlo simulation.  Expected shortfall is also known as conditional VaR. Suppose we have determined VaR for our portfolio.  Let’s say we have a VaR for monthly returns at 95% confidence …

## Diagram Layout with Diagram Master

This video demonstrates how to achieve diagram layout using the layout tools in Diagram Master.  Diagram Master is an Excel add-in for creating node based diagrams.  For more information, visit the Diagram Master product page. Topics Covered This video includes how to auto arrange the diagram.  Auto arrange can automatically arrange the diagram in one …

## Formatting Diagrams in Diagram Master

This video demonstrates formatting diagrams in Diagram Master. Diagram Master is an Excel add-in for creating node based diagrams. For more information, visit the Diagram Master product page. Topics Covered Formatting all nodes at the same time. Formatting subsets of nodes. Formatting all connectors at the same time. Formatting subsets of connectors. Selecting/Deselecting individual nodes …

## Project Critical Path Analysis Using Simulation

Project critical path analysis can be performed using Monte Carlo simulation as a way to determine project completion time probabilities.  In this article, we will create a network diagram in Excel and a table to perform necessary logic operations. We will assume that each task follows the PERT distribution (also called Beta-PERT).  Using past experience, …

## Monte Carlo Tolerance Analysis

Monte Carlo simulation can be used for tolerance analysis (Monte Carlo tolerance analysis) to determine the rejection rate of assemblies.  In this application we will look at an example assembly where parts A and B must fit inside part C with a clearance fit.  For performance reasons we want to minimize the total clearance so …